Past the Low Point for Funds of Hedge Funds

>It has been a tough time for funds of hedge funds post the Credit Crunch. At last it looks like the aggregate assets under management are beginning to emerge from the prolonged bottoming phase. Three months ago there was a comment here on the flat-lining in asset flows for North American funds of hedge funds. But the latest survey evidence from Preqin shows a rather more constructive outlook.

Whilst the aggregate is little changed:

Graphic One: Aggregate Fund of Hedge Funds Assets under Management

Source: Preqin

The detail shows that more of the fund of funds sector is experiencing positive changes in AUM:

Graphic Two: Changes in Fund of Hedge Funds’ Assets under Management since 2007

Source: Preqin

The proportion of funds of funds experiencing a fall in assets has gone from a substantial minority last year (42%) to only a small minority (17%) this year.
Much more of the industry has experienced stability in AUM this year – 55% of FoFs have seen no change in assets so far this year compared to last year.
The proportion of funds of hedge funds having an increase in assets is up to 28% in the 1Q of 2011.

If these trends continue the total AUM for funds of funds could rise towards $950bn by year end, in Peqin’s estimation. This would be a good fit with evidence suggesting that institutional investors will be increasing their allocations to hedge funds. According to the recent Deutsche Bank survey on hedge funds, in aggregate institutional investors do expect to increase their allocations to hedge funds in 2011. The majority of investing institutions (77%) expect to keep their allocations as they were, but more (21%) expect to increase allocations in 2011 than decrease them (2%).

The outlook for funds of hedge funds is the most positive we have seen for at least 3 years. Preqin’s version is

“The fund of funds landscape is markedly different to the pre-crisis industry. Assets under management for the industry as a whole are much lower and there is a bimodal distribution of firms emerging, with peaks at the lower end of the scale as the smaller niche boutiques appeal to the maturing hedge fund investors, and at the larger end of the spectrum the “brand name” multi-strategy firms still prove appealing to the newer investor. After a difficult few years for funds of hedge funds, the managers that have appropriately adapted to retain investors from the institutional market have regained some lost confidence and numerous new funds are poised to be launched this year. Growth of industry assets is again in positive territory and if this new era of revived investor interest in funds of funds continues then aggregate AUM will begin to climb towards the $1 trillion mark.”

The fund of funds part of the hedge fund industry is not going to return to growth in the way it experienced it before – not all funds of funds will benefit in this more mature phase of the industry. But in aggregate the low point for the sector has been passed.