By Donald A. Steinbrugge, CFA, Managing Partner Agecroft Partners
Each year, Agecroft Partners predicts the top hedge fund industry trends through their contact with more than 2,000 institutional investors and 300 hedge fund organizations. Because the hedge fund industry is very dynamic and constantly changing, it is important for firms to anticipate what changes are likely to occur. Those who effectively evolve with the industry will succeed, while stagnant firms will be left behind. Below are 2014’s selected predictions from Agecroft.
1. More hedge funds closing to new investors. With the high concentration of assets flowing to a small percentage of managers, many managers have surpassed their optimum asset capacity to maximize risk adjusted returns. These managers have morphed into asset gatherers who focus more on collecting large management fees versus generating maximum returns for their investors. However, there are an increasing number of mangers who prefer to focus on returns and this trend will lead to increased fund closures to new investors in 2014.
2. Slow implementation of the JOBS Act. Adoption of the JOBS ACT has been stymied due to additional legislation imposed by the SEC. Only firms that check off a box on schedule D are allowed to participate in general solicitation. Hedge fund firms are concerned that this will open them up to more frequent audits, onerous reporting requirements, and more difficult rules to prove accredited status of investors. We expect this adoption to remain sluggish until either a few firms benefit significantly from taking advantage of general solicitation in raising assets, which would cause others to follow or the SEC cracks down on firms who are currently violating non-solicitation rules and have not registered to take advantage of the JOBS ACT. These non-solicitation rules are very grey, and interpretation of the rules varies greatly throughout the industry. For example, what information may be included on websites, or in quotes to the media by hedge fund professionals?
3. Significant decline in hedge fund marketing activity through the European Union. Due to the passage of AIFMD, which imposes stricter and onerous requirements on hedge funds and requires registration in each individual country throughout the EU, marketing by hedge funds will decline significantly throughout the region. Most hedge funds will elect not to register in each country and will wait until 2015 before resuming their marketing activities when a single registration will allow a manager access to all EU markets.
4. Strong Growth of 40 Act funds – we expect a significant increase in the amount of assets following into 40 Act single strategy hedge funds and funds of hedge funds, along with the launch of many new 40 Act funds into the market place. Early adopters to launch 40 Act funds were very successful raising significant assets with often inferior products compared to traditional hedge funds attracting institutional assets. As the competition increases, it will be more difficult to raise assets. To be successful in this channel, a strong distribution partner is essential.
5. Positive flows to Hedge Fund of Funds with specific industry niche expertise. Hedge fund of funds with diversified portfolios consisting of the largest hedge fund managers will continue to see their assets erode as more and more pensions begin to replicate this strategy. However, those that excel at a specific niche should have success in raising assets. These three niche areas include:
- Strategy Focus, which would focus on specific strategies, regions, or emerging managers.
- Fund Structure, including managed accounts, UCTS, and 40 Act funds.
- Investor Segments, which might include focusing on insurance company general accounts, investment advisors, or a geographical area where the firm may be viewed as the local expert.